By the year 2050, Australia’s population is projected to reach between 37 and 40 million.
And no that’s not a headline grab, that’s the Federal Government’s own forecast.
Currently, we’re at ~27 million today. What that means is that in one generation, we need to house another 10 to 13 million people. Let that sink in for a moment … that’s a 50% increase in a single generation.
Sydney and Melbourne on their own are on track to become mega-cities, each pushing past 10 million residents, which puts them in the same league as London and Seoul.
Australia will have to become a much denser country. Not because planners love apartments. Nor because governments want to ‘pack us in.’
But because there is literally no other realistic way to do the following:
- Deliver enough housing; and
- Keep that housing even remotely affordable.
We’re not special. We’re simply a young country. Housing supply for fast-growing populations isn’t a new problem; it’s one most global cities solved decades ago.
By global standards, Australia is still young and sparse.
Some numbers for context:
- Melbourne: ~5 million people over ~10,000 sq km
→ ~500 people per sq km - Toronto: ~6.2 million people over ~5,900 sq km
→ ~1,050 people per sq km (more than double Melbourne) - Greater London: ~5,600 people per sq km
- New York City: ~10,700 people per sq km
Right now, about 72% of Australians live in a house on a block of land. A few decades ago, that figure was closer to 90%. In Toronto? Just 39% of people live in detached houses.
By the time my three-year-old is my age, I’d expect Australian urban housing demographics to look a lot closer to Toronto than what we grew up with (and live in today).
Toronto is the right city to model ourselves on. It’s extremely liveable and the social and political parallels with Australia are there too.
One of my best mates lives there. People aren’t miserable. They don’t feel like they’re ‘stacked on top of each other.’ Density done well doesn’t kill lifestyle, it often improves it.
The future of Australian suburbs isn’t endless high-rise towers. It’s medium density. Think town homes, terraces, three-and-four-storey walk ups, small blocks of land with communal parks scattered throughout instead of backyards.
Same suburbs. Same infrastructure. Four times the housing supply.
It isn’t radical urban planning. It’s just Australia finally catching up to what the rest of the world already does.
More supply through density usually means price pressure moderates, at least for dwellings (as opposed to houses). So yes, over time, we may see apartment and townhouse prices grow more slowly than they did in the past.
But here’s the thing: just because dwelling values rise slowly doesn’t mean land values will. In fact, it’s often the opposite. As cities densify well-located land becomes rarer, zoning changes uplift value, and blocks that provided one income stream can now provide multiple.
This is why land near capital cities has been one of the best investments of the past 50 years and there’s a strong case it remains one of the best for the next 50.
The only real question is whether we adapt early and thoughtfully… or fight the inevitable and make the transition far more painful and jarring than it needs to be.
