If you listen to the media, I lost $170,000 last month.
This is the drop in value across my property portfolio in September, apparently, and yet I didn’t sell a thing and I’m not worried in the slightest.
If you’re being told something similar about your property or investments, you shouldn’t be either.
Don’t get me wrong, the constant barrage of ‘house prices are falling’ headlines are unsettling, of course, particularly when like so many, your home is your biggest investment.
But it’s worth reminding yourself that this is what property does over time: it rises, takes a breath, gives back a little, then resumes its climb.
All this tells me right now, is that the market needed a breather.
Since 2018, the median value across Australia’s big five capital cities have had a hell of a run; up 69 per cent in seven years, about 7.8 per cent a year compounding.
Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth performed even better, rising between 104 and 109 per cent from 2018 to 2025. That’s roughly 11 per cent a year, compounding, for seven straight years.
Growth like that was never going to be sustainable.
We’ve seen this pattern before; every cycle since 2000 has followed a similar trajectory:
Source: Cotality (formerly Corelogic), average median house price of Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide.
History never repeats, but it does rhyme.
‘But this time is different, isn’t it’, I hear you ask.
It’s a fair question. Costs are up and borrowing is harder than ever. But it’s worth remembering that 2018 felt different too. Banks were under the microscope of a Royal Commission, lending was tightened, and the headlines were equally gloomy. Prices recovered anyway.
The reason? The fundamentals haven’t changed since 2000. Our population is growing faster than we can build homes, and demand exceeds supply.
A slowdown makes that worse, not better. When the market pauses, people stop buying and developers stop building. Home sales are down 10 per cent this year. New home sales are down 13.5 per cent since June. Developers are shelving projects because building costs keep climbing while values have stalled.
Fewer homes being built today means more pressure tomorrow. We’ve seen this movie before, and it usually ends the same way, rents rise first, then values follow.
So, what should you do? Stick to your plan. Hold what you’ve got, add to it if you’re able, and work your cash flow; review your rents, and keep your bank honest.
The market isn’t crashing … it’s catching its breath.
Know someone losing sleep over the headlines? Send them this blog, it might calm those nerves a bit and provide some clarity.
