‘The times they are a-changing’ – yes, these are Bob Dylan’s words from one of his most famous songs. But they’re resonating on a whole other scale at the moment, with global markets certainly feel that way feeling the sentiment closely right now.
The most recent conflict in the Middle East has injected a fresh wave of uncertainty into financial markets.
Share markets are swinging up and down; analysts are debating whether inflation will surge again; and others are speculating about where interest rates might go next.
Uncertainty
When the world feels uncertain, investors tend to ask the same question:
- What does this mean for property?
While no one has a crystal ball, history provides us a very useful guide.
Over the past 50 years there have been several global crises that shook financial markets and created widespread uncertainty, these include:
- The 1973 Oil Crisis
- Black Monday (19 October 1987)
- Dot-com Bubble Burst and the shock of September 11 (2001) attacks
- Global Financial Crisis (mid 2007- early 2009)
- COVID-19 Pandemic
Each of these events caused major disruption in global markets. Yet Australian property markets told a very different story. Truth be told, during each of these periods of uncertainty, property values across Australia’s capital cities rose rather than fell.
Here is what happened in the years following each crisis mentioned above:
1973 Oil Crisis
House prices increased between 34% and 83% across the five major capital cities between 1973 and 1976.
Black Monday (1987)
Prices rose 31% to 77% between 1987 and 1990.
Dot-com Bust and 9/11 (2000–2001)
Prices climbed 33% to 67% between 2000 and 2003.
Global Financial Crisis
Even during the most severe financial shock in modern history, Australian house prices increased 6% to 12% between 2008 and 2011.
For context, during that same period:
- The S&P 500 fell roughly 8% in the United States.
- The S&P/ASX 200 dropped around 30% in Australia.
COVID-19 Pandemic
House prices surged 14% to 52% between 2020 and 2023 onwards.
Across five decades of global shocks, when looking at the pattern, it is remarkably consistent: when uncertainty rises, Australian property has historically held firm, and often accelerated.
Why is this, I hear you ask? Well, it’s because during uncertain times investors tend to move capital away from volatile assets and toward tangible, income-producing assets.
Property sits squarely in that category.
The lesson is simple. Periods of uncertainty often feel uncomfortable, but historically they have not been a threat to Australian property values.
In many cases, it has been the opposite.
So, if there’s one thing I can say to you, is that if current global events are making you nervous about our markets, as Bob Dylan said, ‘the times they are a-changing.’
But one thing has remained remarkably consistent for decades – Australian houses have proven to be one of the most resilient places to store wealth.
